The newly-elected government is in a fix. It wants to follow a new policy while dealing with militants in the NWFP and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), but the US and its NATO allies are vehemently opposed to peace accords with the Pakistani Taliban. In fact, Washington is ready to do anything to foil attempts by Islamabad’s new rulers to change President Pervez Musharraf’s policies concerning extremism and militancy.

The PPP-led federal government and the ANP-headed ruling coalition in the NWFP are committed to change the policy being pursued by President Musharraf and the PML-Q. They were critical of the policy and while in opposition, had argued that popular political parties enjoying public support would be better able to tackle terrorism and extremism. Their main argument was that President Musharraf lacked popular support and was, therefore, unable to inspire the people to back his anti-terrorism policy.

Unlike the ANP, which believes in the creed of non-violence, as propounded by its inspirational and spiritual leader Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, and wants to try out the traditional jirgas of the Pakhtuns to resolve conflicts, the PPP does not have a clear vision on how to best tackle the issue of extremism. The rhetoric of its leadership notwithstanding, the ruling PPP already appears to have become dependent on the military to lead the way in dealing with the militants. By letting someone like Rehman Malik, the adviser on interior to the prime minister, espouse and execute the government policy on dealing with militants, the PPP-led government has shown its bankruptcy of ideas and expertise with regard to such an important issue. It was Malik who made the hilarious and unbelievable claim that Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Tariq Azizuddin, was recovered from the tribal areas through an operation by the law-enforcement agencies. He made the claim despite the fact that no military action has taken place in the tribal areas since February 1. Except Malik, everyone else familiar with the case of the kidnapped ambassador knew that his release was secured in exchange for Taliban prisoners and after the payment of a huge ransom.

Party head Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani and other PPP and government functionaries have been insisting that they will only talk to tribal elders and interact with militants who surrender their arms. However, the situation on the ground is different as the militants are in no mood to lay down their arms. This can never happen in the tribal areas, where carrying and keeping guns is legal and part of the Pakhtun culture. Even in Swat, the militants, led by maverick cleric Maulana Fazlullah, under the terms of their peace accord with the ANP-PPP coalition government in the NWFP, have made no promise to surrender their arms. All they have done is assured the government that they will not wage an armed struggle for the enforcement of Shariah in Swat and instead, campaign peacefully for the attainment of their goal. In any case, the militants don’t need to launch such a campaign because the provincial government has accepted their demand for Shariah in Swat and agreed to amend the 1999 Nizam-e-Adl Ordinance and the 1994 Shariah Ordinance in line with the demands of Fazlullah’s Tanzeem Nifaz Shariat-i-Mohammadi (TNSM). There are reports that President Pervez Musharraf has already signed the amended the ordinance on the recommendation of NWFP Governor Owais Ghani and, in keeping with the wishes of the ANP-led provincial government, it will be promulgated in the near future.

The 16-point peace accord in Swat, signed on May 21, is intact and the ceasefire that came into effect earlier is holding. Following the accord, the situation has become peaceful and some of the militants have returned to their villages. Newspaper reports said one of the militants’ commanders, Akbar Hussain, received a warm welcome when he came back to his village in the Kabal area along with his armed men. However, top militant leaders such as Fazlullah, Maulana Shah Dowran, Muslim Khan and Sirajuddin are still in hiding. Muslim Khan, spokesman of the group and lead negotiator with the provincial government’s six-member ministerial committee, did emerge from hiding to take part in the three rounds of talk with the ministerial committee in Chakdarra and Peshawar, after being guaranteed a safe passage. He is also in touch with members of the media and is regularly giving the militants’ version of events. An 11-member joint commission comprising representatives of the government and militants is overseeing the implementation of the peace accord and the preparation of lists of families affected by the military operations. The affectees would be compensated for their losses.

However, the implementation of the Swat peace accord could pose problems. The enforcement of Shariah, under which Qazi courts would be assisted by clerics referred to as “Muawin Qazi” to help interpret Islamic laws for the judges, or Qazis, has to take place in three months. The issue of amnesty for top militants such as Fazlullah is tricky as they have been accused of fighting the Pakistan Army, sponsoring suicide bombings, ordering the beheading of members of law-enforcement agencies and political opponents and damaging government property. The issue of the release of about 200 suspects in government custody also needs to be resolved. The government’s promise to set up an Islamic University at the mosque-cum-madrassa complex at Mamdheray, Fazlullah’s village and headquarters of his faction of TNSM, has also drawn criticism from civil society groups and ANP’s political rivals. The ANP is facing accusations of abandoning its secular and progressive agenda for the sake of power.

More importantly, the US and its NATO allies are critical of the peace accord even though Swat is far away from Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, and there is no evidence that Swati militants are infiltrating the Durand Line to launch attacks against US-led coalition forces. America’s strategy appears to be to oppose any policy that results in a halt of military operations by the army. The US argument is that a policy of appeasement towards the militants is against its interest, as the peace accords frees up the Afghan, Pakistani and other foreign fighters to concentrate on cross-border infiltration and attack targets in Afghanistan. According to the US and NATO military commanders, there is a spike in the number of attacks in Afghanistan each time Pakistan signs peace agreements with the militants. Such allegations, which have yet to be verified by independent sources, ring alarm bells in Western capitals and increase pressure on Islamabad to formulate policies that primarily serve US and NATO interests instead of those of Pakistan. Having received up to $10.5 billion, mostly in military aid from the US, Pakistan is also vulnerable to pressure to show results in the so-called ‘war on terror.’

Compared to Swat, the situation in the tribal areas such as South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Bajaur and Darra Adamkhel is complex and tricky. Almost all tribal agencies are confronted with a deteriorating law and order situation. For seven months now, the main road linking Parachinar with rest of the country is closed due to sectarian strife, while tribal people, mostly Shias, living in upper parts of Kurram valley are suffering due to the blockade. Members of a joint Sunni-Shia jirga, tasked to mediate peace in the Kurram Agency, were sent to jail when they failed to make progress in their peacemaking efforts. In Khyber Agency, located strategically close to Peshawar and encompassing the vital Khyber Pass linking Afghanistan with Pakistan, armed groups of militants, including the strongest one commanded by Mangal Bagh, are fighting for control of the area and their battle has now spilled over to Orakzai Agency. Mohmand Agency is no longer a peaceful place as Taliban militants have spread their influence and attacked security personnel and tribal rivals. Tribal elders in Mohmand are now trying to negotiate peace with the local Taliban, but it cannot happen unless ground is conceded to the militants.

Peace talks in Darra Adamkhel have made progress and a ceasefire is now in place. Due to its strategic location on the Indus Highway – lying midway between Peshawar and Kohat and the rest of southern NWFP – the gun-manufacturing town had become a dangerous route for soldiers, government employees and Shias. Militants frequently abducted and attacked such travellers and even hijacked five military trucks transporting arms to troops deployed in Waziristan. However, a formal peace accord is not yet in place and troops haven’t withdrawn from Darra Adamkhel.

The most problematic and destabilised tribal agencies are South Waziristan, North Waziristan and Bajaur. A truce is holding in North Waziristan after some devastating fighting that followed the collapse of the previous peace accord that was concluded in September 2006. The government has conceded a lot to the militants as a result of the new truce, but it has also succeeded in creating some friction between the Taliban from North Waziristan and those belonging to Baitullah Mehsud’s group in the neighbouring South Waziristan. Though nominally part of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the North Waziristani Taliban haven’t shown much enthusiasm toward this umbrella organisation of the Pakistani Taliban and have generally remained indifferent to its activities.

South Waziristan, or to be precise, the territory inhabited by the Mehsud tribe, holds the key to stabilising Pakistan’s tribal belt bordering Afghanistan. Baitullah Mehsud, head of the TTP and the most powerful Taliban commander in Pakistan, is the most wanted militant by the US and NATO, after the Al-Qaeda head Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Afghan Taliban leaders, Mullah Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani. The CIA-operated unmanned Predator planes are forever flying in this part of South Waziristan to spot and target Mehsud and his men. Such flights increased when Mehsud declared, at a recent and maiden press conference held in his hideout, that he was sending his fighters to Afghanistan to wage jihad against the US and other Western occupying forces. It gave credence to the US, NATO and Afghan government claims that fighters were entering Afghanistan from Pakistan to carry out attacks, and provided Washington with justification to continue launching missile strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

The strong criticism by the US and its NATO allies compelled the Pakistan government to suspend its peace talks with Mehsud, but already, the two sides have exchanged prisoners, the military has pulled out troops from Mehsud’s tribal territory and has dismantled roadside checkpoints as a result of an earlier understanding reached through the efforts of the tribal jirga. In fact, a joint committee of government officials and militants is also preparing lists and visiting affected villages to document losses suffered by tribesmen in military operations and compensate them accordingly. Signing of a formal peace accord will now depend on the situation at home and abroad, more so on the intensity of the pressure being mounted on Islamabad by Washington and other Western capitals.

Another dangerous flashpoint is Bajaur, where a US missile strike on Damadola village killed about 20 people, including two Arab fighters of Al-Qaeda according to Western media reports, and provoked a suicide bombing against military installations at the garrison town of Mardan. The Mardan bomb attack killed 13 people, including five soldiers, and showed how a military operation, whether conducted by the US or Pakistan Army, immediately triggers a revenge attack in the urban centres of the country. Bajaur has been attacked thrice by US drones equipped with Hellfire missiles and there could be more strikes due to Washington’s belief that top Al-Qaeda figures are hiding in the stretch of territory, from Bajaur to Dir and Chitral in Pakistan and in adjoining Kunar to Nuristan provinces in Afghanistan. The policy of peace accords being pursued by Pakistan will not stop the US from attacking targets on the basis of actionable intelligence. More importantly, neither the peace agreements nor the US airstrikes will deter militants from crossing the long and porous Pak-Afghan border and launching attacks in both, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The unwinnable ‘war on terror’ will continue to destabilise the region as the US troops and jihadis hunt each other without caring for geographical and political boundaries.